미국 원전업체 웨스팅하우스, 폴란드 원자로 거래 관련 한국 공급업체 고소
폴란드, 수십억 원전 계약 임박 계획
Westinghouse는 한국의 원자로가 기술을 허가했다고 말했습니다.
KHNP 원자로 제안은 세 가지 중 가장 비용이 적게 든다고 합니다.
미국 원자력 에너지 회사인 Westinghouse는 경쟁자인 한국수력원자력과 원자력이 폴란드에 원자로를 판매하는 잠재적 거래를 차단하기 위해 연방 법원에 소송을 제기했습니다.
Westinghouse는 10월 21일 말 법적 제출에서 한수원의 원자로 설계에는 Westinghouse가 라이센스한 지적 재산권이 포함되어 있으며 APR1400 원자로 배치를 고려하는 폴란드 및 기타 국가로 이전되기 전에 미국 회사의 허가가 필요하다고 말했습니다.
이 신고는 웨스팅하우스가 폴란드 정부가 웨스팅하우스나 다른 출처 대신 정부 소유의 한수원으로부터 원자로를 구매하기 위한 예비 계약에 서명할 준비를 하고 있다는 사실을 알게 된 것으로 보인다. 폴란드는 웨스팅하우스(Westinghouse), 한수원(KHNP), 프랑스 EDF의 첫 번째 원자력 발전소 인수 제안을 평가하고 있다.
이 싸움은 미국 설계를 기반으로 한 한수원의 원자로 설계에 웨스팅하우스 지적 재산권이 존재한다는 오랜 논쟁에 빛을 비춘다. Westinghouse는 APR1400이 2000년에 인수한 System 80 원자로 설계의 기술을 통합했다고 주장합니다.
Westinghouse는 컬럼비아 특별구에 대한 미국 지방 법원에 제기된 소송에서 한수원은 원자력 기술 공유를 제한하는 미국 법률을 준수하기 위해 Westinghouse의 지원이 필요하다고 말했습니다. Part 810 요구 사항으로 알려진 이러한 규칙에 따라 미국 에너지부는 특정 기술을 다른 국가와 공유하는 것을 승인해야 합니다.
Westinghouse는 한수원은 2010년 한국 회사가 아랍에미리트에 4개의 APR1400 원자로를 판매했을 때 한수원에서 이러한 필요성을 인정했다고 밝혔다. 작동 준비가 거의 완료되었습니다.
미국 회사는 한수원이 폴란드 정부와 APR1400 원자로를 폴란드에 공급하기로 하는 양해각서(MOU)에 서명할 예정임을 알게 됐다고 밝혔다. 그러한 각서에 대한 기술 정보를 제공하려면 DOE의 승인과 Westinghouse의 동의가 필요하다고 Westinghouse는 말했습니다.
법원은 APR1400 원자로에 Part 810에 따라 DOE의 검토 대상이 되는 미국산 기술이 포함되어 있다는 판결을 내릴 것을 법원에 요청했습니다. Westinghouse는 또한 법원에 한수원이 Part 810에서 다루는 기술 정보를 폴란드 또는 관련 당국과 공유하는 것을 금지할 것을 요청했습니다. 체코나 사우디아라비아도 APR1400 원자력 발전소 인수를 고려하고 있다.
올해 EDF, 한수원, 웨스팅하우스로부터 제안을 받은 폴란드 정부는 10월 중순에 수십억 달러 규모의 프로젝트에 어떤 공급업체를 선택할지 몇 주 안에 결정할 것이라고 밝혔습니다. 최근 폴란드 언론은 익명의 정부 소식통을 인용해 한수원에서 제공한 최저가가 웨스팅하우스의 AP1000 원자로 설계가 더 비싸고 EDF가 EPR2 원자로 설계로 셋 중 가장 비싸다고 보도했다.
폴란드의 원자력 계획은 2033년에 최초의 원자로를 가동할 것을 요구하고 있습니다. 폴란드는 궁극적으로 2040년대에 6-9GW의 원자력 용량을 갖기를 원합니다.
"We definitely need to see a step change to take advantage of that technology," Balfrey said, adding that storage development is heading in the right direction to achieve that.
Biden has set a goal to decarbonize the US power sector by 2035. The US has a goal of a 50%-52% reduction in greenhouse gas emission by 2030.
Midterm elections
While Republicans are expected to take control of the US House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 midterm elections, the Senate outcome is still uncertain, Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst, senior editor for The Atlantic and contributing editor for National Journal, said during a presentation on what the midterm election could mean for the US energy sector.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs in the Nov. 8 election, with 35 Senate seats on the ballot.
Democrats may have an edge with younger voters focused on climate change, Brownstein said, adding that young voters, who are more focused on the impacts of climate change, are voting up to 62% Democratic.
The current political strategy has left the country in such a divide that control is really decided by a handful of states, Brownstein said, adding about 10 states split the presidential vote in the last four elections, meaning it comes down to about 400,000 voters who get to decide whether the country changes course.
"It's simply not healthy to have such major impacts from such minor segments of population," Brownstein said.
Asian utilities, power generators and gas importers are bracing for unprecedented fuel supply disruptions this winter, with their European counterparts no longer ruling out the possibility that Russia could fully turn off gas supply to the region.
Natural gas accounts for around 24% of global energy supply, and just 11% of Asia's energy mix. But the dependency in Asia is concentrated in a few countries that pivoted to seaborne LNG for electricity generation.
These countries have initiated a range of contingency measures, some of which kicked in to meet the recent peak summer demand season. They include short-term gas procurement strategies, electricity and gas rationing to essential services, load shedding and enforcing restrictions on power consumption.
Combined with fuel switching to alternative fuels like coal, oil, nuclear and renewables, and demand destruction at high prices, these factors will contribute to Asia's response to managing gas shortages this winter.
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects that winter temperatures, in the early gas procurement season as well as deeper into winter, will impact the level of competition between Northeast Asian importers and European buyers for flexible LNG cargoes.
Over three quarters of Asia's seaborne LNG demand is still linked to oil prices, and assuming an average Brent price of around $100/b, most LNG supply stays around $20/MMBtu. The remaining spot LNG will be at JKM prices, with early winter deliveries already starting just under $60/MMBtu. S&P Global expects demand destruction to scale up at different LNG prices, with maximum demand destruction seen in Chinese refining and power generation in South Asia and Japan.
Asian economies like Japan, Singapore, Pakistan and India spent decades clamping down on oil usage in power generation and substituting it with cleaner fuels like natural gas.
But desperate times have prompted many of these countries to bring back what little dormant oil-fired generation capacity is left to combat power shortages, and much of the gas-to-oil switching has already been maxed out since last winter's price spike.
In several countries, oil-fired power generation is constrained by emissions regulations or by downstream supply limitations; but non-power generation is likely to account for a big portion of the gas-to-oil switching.
Asia's spot LNG procurement has nosedived since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the bulk of spot volumes diverted to Europe in the first half of 2022. India and China accounted for most of the decline in spot procurement, and price-sensitive importers like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand are expected to be impacted by rising spot LNG prices this winter.
However, S&P Global expects Japan and South Korea to be established markets that are less price-elastic than many emerging markets, and with LNG demand that is likely to be prioritized to make sure homes are heated. It expects winter LNG prices to remain elevated above shoulder season levels, reflecting greater levels of competition for LNG into winter as spot demand emerges from mature Northeast Asian buyers, and to a lesser extent, China.
Asia's use of coal and gas declined in the first half of 2022 amid high spot prices that diverted trade flows to Europe, while gas-to-oil switching took hold. High output from renewables also reduced the thermal gap in H1, according to Andre Lambine, power analyst with S&P Global.
China's power consumption in H1 also slowed due to zero-COVID policies impacting industrial demand and slower economic growth. But summer demand and extreme weather conditions sent peak power loads in several provinces to record highs in July and August. China's power consumption is expected to grow around 5%-6% in 2022, with national power supply and demand generally balanced, the trade body China Electricity Council said in its China Electric Power Industry Annual Development Report 2022, released July 6.
Lambine expects H2 to see a rebound in thermal power generation in Asia, especially with peak winter demand around the corner, coal-fired power generation gaining traction in several countries like India and the price of spot coal cheaper than spot LNG.
"With JKM at current levels, many downstream buyers are unable to procure LNG on the spot market, especially in China. However, colder than normal temperatures could force players to buy more-expensive volumes as LNG remains an important and flexible form of supply," said Jeff Moore, Manager, Asia LNG at S&P Global.
"We have heard of many end-users testing the water ahead of winter this year as there is certainly a sense that prices could go even higher, driven by an increasingly tight market in the Atlantic. If we enter a scenario where Northeast Asia needs to draw on significant volumes from outside the region this winter, it's possible prices could test all-time highs," Moore said.
"That said, even during last winter when temperatures dipped below normal in Northeast Asia, there was enough alternative fuel switching and volumes in storage that it didn't force Asian end-users to increase their LNG spot procurement significantly," he added.